British students could find their choice of
university course narrowing
if ministers go ahead with tougher immigration rules, higher education experts are warning.
They say a potential tightening up on
study visas
could trigger “lots” more course and department closures and lead to Britain’s universities dropping down global league tables.
The alarm is being sounded in a week that saw universities regulator, the
Office for Students
(OfS), lay out the already parlous state of the sector’s finances, revealing that 43 per cent of England’s higher education providers face a deficit in 2024/25.
Job and research cuts could get even worse
Now there are fears that the situation, with universities already making staff redundant and slashing research budgets, could be about to get “even worse” if the Government introduces the immigration rule changes being briefed on earlier this week. And analysis for
The i Paper
shows that billions of pounds are at stake.
Seen by some as a response to
Reform’s local election successes
, the rule changes include the idea of cutting the number of overseas students staying on in the UK in low paid jobs after they graduate. Instead they would have to get a graduate level job to remain.
Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi) thinktank, said such rule changes could worsen universities’ “doom loop”, further reducing the number of international students and deepening the sector-wide funding crisis.
‘We’re letting our world-class position slip’
“It would mean lots of course closures up and down the UK because those courses would be no longer viable; and it would mean a lot less university research, because there wouldn’t be the cross-subsidy from international fees to research,” he told
The i Paper
.
“What we’re letting slip by is our world-class position in the global league tables,” he added. “Most universities won’t go bust, but they won’t be as good as they would otherwise have been.”
Hillman warned that the crisis in Scotland, with the Scottish Funding Council recently approving a £22m bailout for Dundee University, was “coming England’s way”, predicting up to 20,000 university redundancies this year and the closure of “whole departments”.
This doubles the 10,000 jobs that are already set to disappear from the sector according to the University and College Union (UCU).
“If Labour clamps down even further on foreign students studying in the UK, without providing any more funding for the sector, there is a real risk of universities going under,” said general secretary Jo Grady.
New rules could cost universities billions
It has been reported that the Home Office’s immigration white paper, due next week, could also include a crackdown on student visa applications from Pakistanis, Nigerians and Sri Lankans – and those from other countries where students are statistically most likely to overstay and claim asylum in the UK.
Read Next:
Over-80s get ‘taxpayer-funded’ student loans for fine art and animation degrees
Research by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), conducted for
The i Paper
reveals the huge amount of university funding that could be jeopardised by such a move. It found that there were 32,977 study visas for bachelor’s level or above to Pakistani students, 17,771 for Nigerian students and 3,299 for Sri Lankans in 2024. And they led to UK universities being paid £3bn in 2024.
The analysis, based on data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), also found that 170,371 graduate visas were offered in 2024, which contributed £11.4bn to UK university revenue, based on 2024 prices.
Jamie Arrowsmith, director of Universities UK International, said that shortening the length of the graduate visa – which currently lets international students stay in the UK for two years after completing their course – would be “potentially quite damaging to the attractiveness of the UK”.
He said years of underfunding had led to domestic teaching and research being cross-subsidised by international student fees, and “to undermine that source of funding without addressing any of the other structural issues would make a really challenging situation even worse”.
Some institutions could be more exposed than others. At eight large UK universities – defined as those with a fee income of more than £50m – more than half of students are international, according to HESA data.
This includes the LSE, where 64 per cent of students are international according to the figures, University College London, with 52 per cent, and Imperial, with 51 per cent. The universities have been contacted for comment.
The University of Hertfordshire, with 55 per cent international students, said it “strongly opposes” any changes that make the UK a less attractive place to study.
“While the University of Hertfordshire is stable, any restrictions impacting international students would have a detrimental effect,” a spokesperson said.
It comes as the university is going through a redundancy process for several schools, including six jobs in Law, five in Creative Arts and up to 16 in Health, Medicine and Life Sciences.
At the University of Bedfordshire 47 per cent of students are from overseas, including 9 per cent Nigerian and 6 per cent Pakistani students. It recently announced it was looking to cut 240 jobs after restructuring in summer 2023 and closing performing arts courses.
The Royal College of Art, which has 74 per cent international students, has opened a voluntary leavers scheme for permanent staff.
London Business School, where 84 per cent of students are international, said they contribute “significantly” to the UK economy. Dean Sergei Guriev said some students are sponsored by their companies and return home immediately and others set up businesses or take highly skilled UK jobs.
International students had been becoming an increasingly important source of income for universities in recent years.
But the number of international students applying for UK study visas had already dropped by 16 per cent last year. This came after the previous Conservative government banned foreign postgraduate students on non-research courses from bringing family members to the UK from January 2024.
Risk for students if universities are forced to close
This week, regulator, the Office for Students (OfS), said the fall in international student recruitment was the primary reason for a deterioration in university finances, and estimated that overseas student numbers could now be more than a fifth lower than previous forecasts.
“If this trend continues, it has the potential to further challenge providers’ finances,” the OfS report said.
Philippa Pickford, director of regulation at the OfS, said: “We still do not expect to see multiple university closures in the short-term. But the medium-term pressures are significant, complex and ongoing.”
Read Next:
The 8 measures that could be part of Labour’s ‘landmark’ immigration crackdown
She also said: “There is no doubt that if it was a large institution that fails, our ability to secure good outcomes for students is quite low, and that’s why we think it’s really important to have some sort of special administration regime in place for higher education.
“I know that’s something that we’re talking to Government about at the moment.”
Responding to the OfS report, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson said the “concerning” figures showed why last year’s tuition fee rise and reforms were necessary.
Last week Alan Johnson, the former new Labour education and home secretary, warned ministers that new migration controls could push some universities under.
New migration rules could ‘ruin’ the sector
Now Chancellor at the University of Hull, he said: “If they make the mistake of believing that the way to solve the migration problem is to ruin our universities and close some of them – and that is how stark it is – they will be making a very big mistake.”
A Universities UK survey of 60 universities published this week found a quarter had already had to make compulsory redundancies, nearly half (49 per cent) had been forced to close down courses, 18 per cent had closed entire departments and 19 per cent had reduced investment in research.
The Home Office has said that international students will “always be welcome in the UK” but added that net migration “must come down”, with the white paper setting out a plan to “restore order to our broken immigration system”.
Universities Scotland said there was a “very high degree of anxiety” in the sector ahead of the UK Government’s immigration white paper and called for stability in immigration policy to keep “keep delivering at the same level” for home students, employer stakeholders and research partners.